Cairo Capital
Investments & Financial Services
Mint Daily
EGX30 46,415 ▼ 0.77% foreign-led pressure
EGX70 12,517 ▲ 0.44% local rotation
EGX100 17,511 ▲ 0.08% breadth holding
Brent ~$108 ▲ +17% G7 SPR talks
WTI ~$102 ▲ +12% still elevated
Gold ~$5,092 ◆ live haven bid
USD/EGP ~52 Stress policy anchor tested
Mkt Cap EGP 3.22T Stable listed base intact
Breaking · Day 10 · Iran War
Mojtaba Khamenei named new Supreme Leader (8 Mar) — IRGC hardliner. Brent spiked to $119.50 Monday, settled ~$108. G7 discussing emergency SPR release. US orders non-emergency staff out of Saudi Arabia. 7th US soldier killed.
Monday 9 March 2026 · Ramadan · Post-Close · Day 10 of War

Brent breaches $100 — twice — new Supreme Leader, G7 SPR talks, as EGX30 falls to 46,415 and EGX70 defies the selloff

Verified: Amwal Al Ghad · Investing.com · CNBC · Reuters · Al Jazeera · NPR · OilPrice.com · Fortune · LiteFinance · 9 March 2026
Key divergence: EGX30 (blue-chips) continued its war-driven slide, down a further 0.77%. But EGX70 (mid/small caps) rose +0.44% — a clear signal that domestic investors are rotating out of large, foreign-held names and into smaller, locally-owned companies. The EGX100 was essentially flat. This is a flow-driven correction in large caps, not a broad market failure.
Market Internals — 9 March 2026 · Amwal Al Ghad
Top Movers
Commodity-linked and local-yield names led the close.
live close set
Company Price (EGP) Change
Egyptians RE Fund Certs
NBFS sector
 13.71 +19.84%
Misr Chemical Industries
Basic Resources
 38.00 +16.96%
Odin Egyptian Equity Fund
Investment Fund
 3.71 +11.41%
Read: Misr Chemical's move confirms that oil pass-through is already being priced into listed industrials. Real estate fund certificates point to domestic money preferring local-duration and yield over externally exposed blue-chips.
Investor Flow
Foreign exit met local demand instead of broad liquidation.
ownership split
Demographic Net Flow
Domestic Egyptians
Absorbed the session and kept the mid-cap bid intact.
 +EGP 24.66B
Arab Investors
Participation turned modestly negative as Gulf risk widened.
 -EGP 2.71B
Non-Arab Foreigners
Risk-off selling stayed concentrated in externally owned large caps.
 -EGP 21.94B
Read: The session was a foreign exit from large-cap risk met by domestic rotation into smaller, locally held names.
Energy — Brent Broke $100 Today
Lead Market Note
war premium

Brent printed $119.50 intraday, then reversed on G7 SPR headlines.

$119.50 intraday high · first $100+ since 2022

The price action matters more than the close. A new hardline Iranian leadership, Gulf infrastructure risk, and Hormuz disruption pushed crude into a stress regime before the Financial Times reported emergency G7 reserve discussions. The relief headline capped the move, but did not remove the regime shift.

Gold
~$5,092
Safe-haven bid intact. Still below the 8 Mar panic high.
Silver
~$84
Holding above support as defensive metals stay bid.
WTI Crude
~$102
Closed below the spike, but still up roughly 12% on the day.
EU Nat Gas TTF
€48/MWh
Elevated while Qatar supply risk keeps LNG markets tight.
Commodity Level Today
Brent Crude (ICE) ~$101–$109 ▲ +$9–$16 day
Brent Intraday High $119.50 record move
WTI Crude (NYMEX) ~$102 ▲ +12% day
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) ~$5,092 consolidating
Silver Spot (XAG/USD) ~$84 safe-haven bid
USD / EGP ~52 stress regime
Sources: Investing.com, CNBC, Reuters, OilPrice.com, Fortune, Al Jazeera, Axios · 9 March 2026 · Oil prices volatile — ranges reflect intraday movement prior to close
What Actually Matters
R1
Energy shock
Brent's spike to $119.50 reset the market's inflation ceiling before the G7 relief headline landed.
Watch whether reserve-release language turns into barrels. Without execution, Egypt stays in an oil-stress regime.
R2
Geopolitics
Mojtaba Khamenei's elevation hardens the probability that this becomes a longer Gulf risk event, not a short panic.
That pushes the April CBE meeting further toward hold and makes sustained FX caution more rational.
R3
EGX flows
EGX30 fell again, but EGX70 rose as local money rotated away from foreign-owned blue-chips into domestic cyclicals.
This still looks like a positioning shock in leadership names, not a market-wide failure of risk appetite.
R4
Sector lead
Misr Chemical's 16.96% jump is the clearest single-stock evidence that commodity pass-through is already being repriced on EGX.
The next names to watch are fertilisers, chemicals, and selective industrial exporters.
R5
Tomorrow
February CPI and the Misr Life recording are the next two local catalysts, but CPI is the one that can move the policy tape.
Above 12.5% headline inflation and the market will price the April cut case out much more aggressively.
Oil Price Scenarios — What Happens Next
Bull — G7 SPR + Ceasefire $75–$85
Policy
April cut back on table
Egypt Market
Blue-chips lead relief rally
G7 delivers a coordinated 180M barrel SPR release and US-Iran talks reopen. Risk premium unwinds fast and the local market gets room to re-rate.
Base — Prolonged Standoff $90–$110
Policy
CBE hold in April
Egypt Market
Range-bound with local support
Mojtaba Khamenei digs in, Hormuz disruption lasts 4–8 weeks, and SPR relief proves temporary. Egypt avoids a full break but stays in defense mode.
Bear — Gulf Infrastructure Attacks $130–$150+
Policy
No cuts in 2026
Egypt Market
EGP stress, buffers tested
Saudi/UAE production takes a hit and the Qatar-style supply shock materialises. Egypt shifts from pressure management to endurance mode over the next 6–9 months.
Mint Perspective
The grace period is over. Egypt is now trading a longer-duration oil shock, not a two-day scare.
Mojtaba Khamenei's appointment removes a major hope trade. The market can no longer assume a quick ceasefire, which means Brent above $100 now acts as a valuation cap on local risk assets and as a policy constraint for the April CBE meeting.
The constructive read is that EGX70 still found buyers while EGX30 did not. That is a healthier signal than a broad selloff: local liquidity is still working, but it is demanding domestic ownership, shorter duration, and commodity leverage.
$119.50 Brent intraday spike that reset the market's inflation ceiling.
2 Apr CBE MPC date now drifting toward a hold as the base case.
Macro Watchlist
Macro Dashboard
Rates, FX and reserve conditions.
CBE Rate 19.0%
down 100bps on 12 Feb		 hold likely Apr
CPI Jan '26 11.9%
core 11.2%		 Feb due tomorrow
NIR $52.7B
end-Feb record		 6.9m cover
USD/EGP ~52
policy anchor under pressure		 stress regime
GDP Q2 FY26 5.3%
Oct-Dec 2025		 4-year high
Brent $100+
first time since 2022		 valuation ceiling
Critical Events
Next 48h drivers.
10 MAR
February CPI Release — CAPMAS
First partial oil pass-through read. Above 12.5% headline inflation makes the April cut case materially harder to defend.
10 MAR
Misr Life Insurance — EGX Recording
Temporary NBFS listing. First new insurer since 1985. Trading still waits on FRA approval.
15 MAR
CIB Annual General Assembly
Watch management guidance for the oil and FX shock across the largest foreign-held EGX bank.
02 APR
CBE MPC Rate Decision
A cut now needs both softer CPI and a cleaner oil path. Hold is becoming the institutional base case.